FINANCEOUTLOOKINDIA8 JULY, 2026Nomura believes that negotiations between the United States and India are progressing steadily and that a trade agreement could be finalised in the near future. According to the brokerage, both countries appear close to aligning on tariff adjustments, which are expected to settle around the 20% range. While discussions have advanced meaningfully, the deal has not yet been formally concluded, but Nomura expects a breakthrough soon.The firm also assessed India's current macroeconomic environment, noting that the economy is benefiting from easing inflation, supportive REPORTRUPEE MOVEMENT AND BUDGET PLANS KEEP MARKETS ALERTWHY IS THE INDIAN RUPEE FALLING AGAINST THE US DOLLAR DESPITE GAINSINDIA'S FOREX RESERVES RISE $964 MILLION TO $675.16 BILLION THIS WEEKGCCS DRIVE INDIA'S OFFICE LEASING TO 45% SHARE IN H1 2026AXIS BANK EYES BIGGER BET ON AXIS MAX LIFE AS RBI RULES CHANGEIndia's financial markets begin the week with investors closely tracking the rupee, government borrowing plans, and the upcoming corporate earnings season. Rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in West Asia remain key concerns, as they continue to put pressure on the Indian currency and inflation outlook.The Indian rupee has weakened significantly against the US dollar in recent sessions, prompting market participants to watch for possible intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Currency traders believe the RBI could step in to prevent excessive volatility if the rupee continues to approach record lows. Higher crude oil prices increase India's import bill, making foreign exchange management a critical priority. The rupee fell against the US dollar in early trade on Monday despite India's forex reserves climbing to a fresh high, as soaring crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows, and escalating tensions in West Asia weighed heavily on investor sentiment.India's forex reserves increased $964 million to $675.16 billion in the week ended July 10, driven mainly by a rise in foreign currency assets, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) weekly data released on July 17. Foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of India's forex reserves, rose by $930 million to $546.51 billion during the week. In rupee terms, FCA increased by Rs 14,078 crore. FCA includes the value of foreign currencies held by the RBI and is affected by changes in the value of major global currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar. India's gold reserves also increased during the week, rising by $24 million to $105.23 billion, while their value in rupee terms went up by Rs 1,235 crore. The country's holdings of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with the IMF increased by $3 million to $18.63 billion, up Rs 09 crore in rupee terms. Axis Bank is evaluating whether to increase its stake in Axis Max Life Insurance to as much as 30%, taking advantage of the Reserve Bank of India's revised ownership framework that now allows banks to hold higher equity in insurance companies with regulatory approval.The private sector lender said it is internally assessing the strategic and regulatory implications of increasing its shareholding beyond the current 19.99% before approaching the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for approval. Speaking during the bank's post-earnings analyst call, Executive Director Subrat Mohanty said the lender would evaluate the proposal internally before seeking the regulator's views. India's Grade A office market remained on a firm footing in the first half of 2026, with Global Capability Centres (GCCs) cementing their position as the biggest occupiers of commercial real estate. GCCs leased 19.2 million sq. ft. - 45% of the total 42.6 million sq. ft. of gross office leasing across the country's top seven cities during H1 2026, up from a 41% share, or 15.78 million sq. ft., in the corresponding period last year, according to a research report by Anarock.The Indian rupee weakened 12 paise to 96.42 against the US dollar during early trading after opening at 96.53, compared to its previous close of 96.30 in the interbank foreign exchange market. Market participants attributed the decline to a sharp rise in global crude oil prices, persistent demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, and continued foreign portfolio outflows from Indian equities. The biggest trigger for the rupee's weakness was the sharp jump in international crude oil prices.
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