As per the projections by ICRA, India's GDP is expected to grow moderately from 7.6 percent in Q2FY24 to 6.0 percent in Q3FY24. per the projections by ICRA. Further, it is also predicted that the GVA growth is estimated to ease from 7.4 percent in Q2FY24 to 6.0 percent in Q3FY24.
The growth will be driven by two major industries which includes industrial which is set to reach +8.8 percent from +13.2 percent and agriculture which is set to reach +0.5 percent from +1.2 percent). There is also an improvement in services and is expected to witness a little plunge from +5.8 percent +6.5 percent.
The anticipated deterioration in the industrial sector growth in Q3 FY2024, ICRA added, is partly attributable to an adverse base effect (+2.3 percent in Q3 FY23 vs. -0.5 percent in Q2 FY23). This is quite the deceleration with respect to volume expansion if we compare IIP growth of 5.8 percent in Q3 FY24 to 7.8 percent in Q2 FY24. It is noteworthy to note that the prices are keeping profitability of some sectors favorable even as the country faces a continued deflation in commodity sectors.
In addition, there is a chance of a mild deterioration of 0.2 percent in the total spending of the Government of India including the 25 state governments except Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Manipur in this Q3 FY24 from +18.3 percent in Q2FY24.
“Lower volume growth for the industrial sector, flagging momentum in certain indicators of investment activity, a slowdown in Government expenditure and an uneven monsoon are expected to dampen the GDP growth to 6.0 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.6 percent in Q2 FY2024,” stated Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research & Outreach, ICRA Ltd.
