Home-cooked meals became more affordable in February, with the cost of both non-vegetarian and vegetarian thalis falling during the month, according to the most recent report released by credit rating agency Crisil on Monday.

In February, the price of a vegetarian thali fell by nearly 5% to Rs27.2 from the previous month, owing to a drop in the prices of onions (7%), potatoes (17%), and tomatoes (25%), which coincided with fresh arrivals. Similarly, the price of a non-vegetarian thali fell by nearly 5% to Rs 57.4 in February, down from Rs 60.6 in January, owing to a drop in broiler prices due to lower demand during a bird flu scare in southern India.

This follows a likely decline in India's consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation in February, which is expected to approach or fall below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% inflation target due to lower prices in various goods categories, particularly food items. On February 7, at the customary post-policy review press conference, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that food inflation pressures, barring any supply-side shocks, should ease due to good kharif production, lower winter vegetable prices, and favorable rabi crop prospects.

Non-vegetarian thali prices were higher than the previous year, while vegetarian thali prices fell in February. In February 2024, the price of a non-vegetarian thali was Rs 54, while a vegetarian thali cost Rs 27.5. According to the report, the cost of a non-vegetarian thali increased by 6% year on year, owing to an estimated 15% rise in broiler prices.

"The increase in broiler prices, which account for nearly half of the cost of a non-vegetarian thali, is due to a low base last year, when prices fell due to excess supply." Elevated feed costs, resulting from a 6% year-on-year rise in maize prices, also contributed to the increase, according to the report.

In contrast, the cost of a vegetarian thali fell year on year due to lower prices for tomatoes and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders. According to Pushan Sharma, director of research at Crisil Intelligence, the arrival of fresh rabi crops is expected to keep vegetable prices low in the future, providing ongoing relief for vegetarian thali costs.

"That said, temperature conditions in March will bear watching, as above-normal temperatures can impact the shelf life and quality of onions, which need to be stored for the next six months, as well as the quantity and quality of wheat - the most significant crop of the rabi season," he explained.                                                                                                                               

The credit rating agency calculates the average cost of preparing a thali at home using input prices from north, south, east, and west India. The monthly change reflects the impact on typical household expenditures. The data also shows which ingredients (cereals, pulses, broilers, vegetables, spices, edible oil, and cooking gas) are driving the change in thali prices.