Indian benchmarks ended flat after a volatile, range-bound session on September 29, with the Nifty posting its seventh straight decline. After a positive start, the market attempted an early upside, but persistent selling on intraday rallies dragged the Nifty to close near the day’s low.

Uncertainty around the US–India trade deal and sustained weakness in IT and pharma sectors remain key near-term headwinds for the market. Investors are awaiting the RBI policy announcement this week, with the central bank widely expected to maintain status quo on rates.

At close, the Sensex was down 61.52 points or 0.08 percent at 80,364.94, and the Nifty was down 19.80 points or 0.08 percent at 24,634.90. The midcap index gained 0.3%, while the small-cap index slipped slightly.

Sector-wise, oil & gas, PSU banks, energy, and realty gained around 1% each, while the media index slipped nearly 1%.

Nifty Outlook

On the daily chart, Nifty has formed a significant bearish candle with an upper shadow, indicating that bulls failed to sustain the earlier rebound. This price action reflects selling pressure at higher levels and suggests a continuation of near-term weakness in the sessions ahead. The lower wick shows some tentative buying, but overall momentum remains tilted toward the downside.

Nifty is now approaching a critical confluence support zone in the 24,500–24,400 range, marked by previous swing lows and the 200-day moving average. This area is likely to act as a strong demand zone, where short-term buyers may step in, providing a potential base for stabilization. Traders should watch this zone closely for signs of absorption of selling pressure and formation of reversal patterns.

On the upside, immediate resistance lies in the 24,800–24,900 region, representing a key supply zone. A decisive breakout and close above this level would confirm a short-term bottom and could pave the way for a near-term trend reversal, potentially targeting 25,100–25,200 as the next hurdle. Until then, caution is warranted, as the structure suggests that downside risk remains dominant, and any rallies may face selling pressure near the defined supply zones.

Overall, the technical setup highlights a market in a corrective phase, with a critical support test imminent and a potential rebound contingent on overcoming short-term resistance levels.

Bank nifty Outlook

On the daily chart, Bank Nifty has formed a high-wave candle and closed just above the previous day’s low, suggesting that bulls are stepping in at lower levels but overall indecision remains in the market. This price action indicates that while buyers are active near key supports, selling pressure is still present, reflecting short-term consolidation.

Currently, Bank Nifty is trading below its 21- and 50-day EMAs, signaling that short-term momentum remains weak and the trend favors the downside until these moving averages are convincingly breached.

Immediate support is seen at 54,080, followed by 53,800, which also aligns closely with the 200-day EMA, making this zone a critical demand area. A strong bounce from these levels could provide a short-term relief rally.

On the upside, resistance is placed at 54,850, followed by 55,000, which represents key supply zones where selling pressure could re-emerge. A sustained breakout above 55,000 would be required to signal a potential near-term trend reversal and shift the short-term bias back in favor of the bulls.

Overall, the technical setup suggests a market in a corrective phase, with a delicate balance between buyers and sellers.

Also Read: Bajaj Broking & MOFSL Daily Market Closing Commentary

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd 

Indian opened positive at the start of the day after 6 days of continuous fall. It however witnessed selling pressure later to close flat on Monday, amidst mixed global cues and cautiousness ahead of RBI’s MPC decision on Wednesday.

The broader markets were mixed, with the Nifty Midcap100 +0.3% while the Smallcap100 edged down -0.1%. Sectorally, indices ended in a mixed trend. Nifty PSU Bank (+1.8%) and Oil & Gas (+1.4%) led the gains, with oil & gas stocks rebounding after five sessions of decline. PSU bank stocks also gained ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy outcome, with the six-member MPC meeting commencing today and its decision due on October 1. The Cables & Wires sector is witnessing strong demand across power, infra, EVs, data centers, and real estate, with rising raw material costs being passed on and steady volumes supporting robust revenue momentum.

On the macro front, Moody’s has affirmed India’s long-term issuer ratings at Baa3 with a stable outlook and projected GDP growth of 6.5% in FY26, keeping it the fastest-growing G20 economy. Previously, the agency had flagged a potential 0.3pp drag from U.S. tariffs, but noted that strong domestic demand and a resilient services sector would cushion the impact. Flows remained divergent, with DIIs infusing ~₹55,000 crore in September even as FIIs offloaded ~₹30,000 crore. On the data front, China’s manufacturing PMI is awaited today, while UK GDP and U.S. JOLTS job openings are due tomorrow. "Going forward, we expect markets to consolidate in the near term, tracking global headwinds, and key macroeconomic data" stated Siddhartha Khemka - Head Of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Ashika Institutional Equities

Indian markets opened on a positive note, reflecting upbeat global cues, but traded in a volatile manner throughout the session. The benchmark Nifty oscillated within a narrow range of 24,800 to 24,600 (rounded levels) before settling near the day’s close. Sector-wise, notable strength was seen in PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, Construction, Metals, and Energy stocks. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the upcoming RBI monetary policy outcome, which is expected to be the next key trigger for direction.

On the derivatives front, a significant open interest build-up was observed in Samman Cap, Dixon, Hindustan Petroleum, Nestle India, and Power Grid, indicating active positioning in these counters.