Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on September 19, with the Nifty slipping below 25,350. Despite the day’s decline, domestic equities logged weekly gains, supported by a risk-on tone and broad-based global strength. At the close, the Sensex fell 387.73 points or 0.47% to close at 82,626.23, while the Nifty shed 96.55 points or 0.38% to settle at 25,327.05. The Midcap and Small Cap indices finished largely unchanged. Sector-wise, consumer durables, media, auto, FMCG, and IT saw mild profit-taking, easing 0.4–0.6%, whereas power and PSU banks outperformed with gains of around 1% each. Progress in U.S.-India trade negotiations and improved global liquidity continued to underpin sentiment. Meanwhile, Adani Group stocks surged up to 10% intraday after SEBI cleared the group in the Hindenburg probe, triggering renewed investor confidence and strong buying interest across the conglomerate.

Nifty Outlook

Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a bull candle with a higher high and higher low signaling continuation of the up move for the third week in a row. Key observation on the daily chart is that Nifty has recently witnessed a bullish crossover of the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing the positive short-term outlook. Nifty has immediate key resistance at 25,500-25,600. A decisive breakout above this range could drive further momentum on the upside towards the 25,900 levels. Nifty has already witnessed a 1000-point rally in the last three weeks, which has pushed the daily oscillators into overbought territory. Hence, some consolidation is likely in the range of 25,600-25,100. Key support is placed at 25,100-24,900 levels, being the confluence of the 20 & 50 days EMA and key retracement area. We believe dips should be used as a buying opportunity.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The Bank Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a bull candle with a higher high and higher low signaling extension of the pullback for the 3rd week in a row. The index is seen sustaining above the short & medium term moving averages. We expect the index to maintain positive bias and head higher towards 56,000-56150 levels in the coming sessions, being the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline (57628-53561). A follow through strength above 56,150 will open upside towards the 57,000 levels in the coming weeks. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 54,800 levels being the 20- and 100-days EMA. While key support is placed at 54000 levels being the confluence of the last week's low and key retracement of the current pullback.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd 

Indian equities edged lower after three consecutive sessions of gains as selling pressure emerged at higher levels. Nifty50 closed with a loss of 97 points at 25,327 (-0.4%). Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 indices ended marginally higher, outperforming the benchmarks.

Sectoral indices showed mixed movement, with PSU banks leading with 1.3% gains alongside pharma index (up 0.5%);  while losses were seen in IT, private banks, financial services, auto and FMCG, reflecting selective buying in the market. IT index dropped by 0.5%, snapping three-day gaining streak on profit booking after Fed rate cut-led rise. Bank Nifty slipped 0.5% after a 12-session rally, as investors booked profits in select heavyweights. On the institutional front, FII were net buyers on Thursday, adding equities worth Rs367crores which lent support to the market sentiment.

"Overall, we expect the market to remain firm with a positive bias, aided by a potential consumption boost as the GST rate cuts become effective from September 22nd along with Navratri festivities beginning from the same day which should further push demand. Outlook for export-oriented sectors is also likely to improve, supported by the US Fed’s recent rate cut and encouraging progress in the India–US trade talks", says Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.