India's mega IPO market has become a graveyard for investor wealth, with a startling pattern emerging that should concern anyone betting big on HDB Financial Services' Rs 12,000 crore debut.

Key Highights

• HDB Financial’s ₹12,500 cr IPO oversubscribed ~17×, with ₹19 bn in bids signaling investor confidence.
• Concern arises over mega IPO curse; five of eight ₹10k cr+ listings fell on listing-day. Analysts cautious. 

Out of the last eight IPOs worth more than Rs 10,000 crore, six have delivered crushing losses to investors within six months of listing, with an average negative return of 20%. According to data from SAMCO Securities and ACE Equity, the carnage has deepened over a year, with average losses widening to 25%. Only SBI Cards has managed to stay afloat with positive returns.

Also Read: HDFC Bank's Shares Rises with the Board's Approval of HDB Financial Services' Proposed IPO

Paytm collapsed 62% in six months and 65% in a year, while Reliance Power imploded by 52% and 71%, respectively. LIC, despite its blue-chip status, fell 24% in six months and 35% over a year.

"The track record of mega-IPOs is frankly terrifying," said a senior fund manager who declined to be identified. "When you raise more than Rs 10,000 crore, you're basically asking the market to absorb a massive amount of paper, and history shows that rarely works out well.