An analyst research that described the pricing rise in the telecom sector as "imminent" stated that the industry is projected to experience a 15–17% tariff hike following the general elections, with Airtel being the largest benefactor.
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According to a study by Antique Stock Broking, which called the rate rise inevitable and identified Bharti as the main benefactor, "we expect the industry to take a 15–17 per cent tariff hike post the elections."
It stated that the most recent increase of almost 20% occurred in December 2021.
The brokerage note included a breakdown of Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Bharti, the second-biggest telecom company in India. It stated that by the end of FY27, Bharti's ARPU, which now leads the sector at Rs 208, will increase to Rs 286.
This will be fueled by an increase in tariffs that will bring in Rs 55, upgrading 2G users to 4G customers that will bring in Rs 10, upgrading consumers to higher data plans (both 4G and 5G), and switching to postpaid service, which would bring in Rs 14.
"We expect Bharti's subscriber base to grow at about two per cent per annum, against the industry growth of one per cent per annum," stated the report.
During the next three years, the brokerage anticipates that Sunil Mittal-led Airtel will see its greatest financial performance phase in over a decade, powered by rate hikes, 2G upgrades, robust growth in enterprise and Fiber-to-the-home, and a decline in investment following the introduction of 5G.
"Although Bharti has selected a different 5G deployment approach than major competitors, there are hurdles, but we don't think it will severely hurt Bharti's subscriber base or growth. Moreover, we think that valuations undervalue the current, extremely favorable macroenvironment for the telecom industry," the statement said.
Including the 5G rollout, Bharti has projected for expenditure of around Rs 75,000 crore over FY24–2026. It said that investment intensity is anticipated to decline considerably after the launch.
The wireless business's current run-rate of approximately Rs 19,000-20,000 crore per year is expected to drop to around Rs 75,000 crore over five years beginning in FY27, according to our estimate. Meanwhile, the total India capex, which includes wireless, DTH, FTTH/FWA, and Enterprise, is expected to decline from the current run-rate of Rs 26,500 crore per year (FY24–26) to Rs 23,000 crore per year (ex-spectrum/AGR payment), the report stated.
Given the projected long-term revenue increase of 10 percent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate), mostly driven by ARPU growth, the fall is "stark" as a percentage of sales (down to 12% from the present 21%).
Over the course of the previous almost 5.5 years, the top two telecom companies in India have increased their share of the subscriber market, to the detriment of state-owned BSNL and Vodafone Idea, who are struggling financially and operationally, respectively.
Vodafone Idea's market share decreased from 37.2% in September 2018 to nearly half at 19.3% in December 2023, while Bharti's increased from 29.4% to 33% in the same time frame. The largest gainer is Jio, which increased from 21.6% to 39.7%, according to the report.
The direction of changes in revenue market share is similar, but the swing is smaller due to different pricing increases and the mix of 2G and 4G.
The note from Antique Stock Broking stated that although there has been some consolidation thus far, there has not been a decrease in the level of competition. "VIL was down from 35.3 per cent in 4QFY18 to 19.3 per cent in 4QFY23, while Jio was up from 24.4 per cent to 44.5 percent and Bharti was up from 28.7 per cent to 35.8 percent," the note stated.
