According to Goldman Sachs Equity Research, share prices of footwear firms, including Bata India and Metro Brands, could rise by 35%. With the stock trading at ₹1075, the target price of ₹1450 for Metro Brands indicates a potential upside of up to 34%. In the meanwhile, BATA India Ltd.'s target price of ₹1470 suggests a gain of more than 8% for the company, which is now trading at about ₹1353 levels.
The two main factors that will raise the share prices of Metro Brands and Bata India are:
Improved penetration for multi-brand shoe stores The best-positioned companies to profit from this are multi-brand shoe stores like Metro Bands and Bata India. Over the past 10 years, the market share of non-branded and other brands has declined in India, from around 85% to approximately 75%. Conversely, the market share of branded footwear is growing. Global trends, according to Goldman Sachs, suggest that the top 15 brands will probably hold 40–60% of the market share as the footwear industry grows.
According to Goldman Sachs, organized multi-brand stores are therefore in the greatest position to benefit from the increasing brand penetration.
The Sports and Athletic (S&A) industry is poised for multi-decade development thanks to an inflection point: Goldman Sachs projects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the value of India's branded S&A footwear business between FY25 and FY45. Estimates for the bull and bear cases are currently at 14% and 12%. According to their S&A industry model, India's footwear market metrics, with comparable underlying macro factors, would catch up to China's (2020) by FY45. They believe that recent strategic partnerships between international S&A brands and regional retailers - Reebok-ABFRL and Fila-Metro Brands — will spur development.
According to Goldman Sachs, Metro Brands is in a stronger position than Bata in terms of important structural factors including premiumization and increasing S&A penetration. Growth has not yet been revived despite Bata India's recent attempts to premiumize its portfolio and increase marketing spending, among other things.
