The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26 upward by 20 basis points to 6.6%, citing a strong first-quarter performance that offset the impact of recent US rate hikes, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report. The IMF also raised India’s FY27 growth projection by 20 bps to 6.2%.

Key Highlights

• IMF boosts India’s FY26 GDP forecast to 6.6%, citing strong Q1 momentum.
• Forecast for FY27 upgraded to 6.2%, despite concerns over escalating U.S. tariffs.

This follows the World Bank’s recent upgrade of India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%, though it slightly trimmed the FY27 estimate to 6.3%, attributing the change to higher US tariffs on Indian exports. Despite global challenges, both institutions expect India to remain the fastest-growing major economy, driven by robust domestic consumption and private sector growth.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized the need for countries to strengthen fiscal buffers, enhance institutional frameworks, and invest in infrastructure and workforce development to foster innovation and resilience.

The Economic Survey projects India’s FY26 GDP growth between 6.3% and 6.8%, with Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran indicating that growth may lean toward the upper end of this range.

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Globally, the IMF lifted its 2025 growth forecast to 3.2%, maintaining 2026 at 3.1%, noting that while the world economy has remained resilient to trade shocks, policy shifts are beginning to weigh on momentum.