The National Statistical Office (NSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released figures on Friday showing that India's GDP growth rate for the quarter ending March 31, 2024, increased by 7.8%. Projections from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s April monetary policy review indicate that these numbers exceed the RBI's forecast of 7%.
For the entire fiscal year 2023–2024 (FY24), GDP growth is projected to be 8.2%, up from a growth rate of 7% in FY23. Previous government projections put the GDP growth rate for FY24 at 7.6%.
In the meantime, growth in Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is predicted to reach 6.3% in Q4FY24. "This GVA growth has been mainly due to significant growth of 9.9 per cent in manufacturing sector in 2023-24 over a contraction of (-)2.2 per cent in 2022-23 and growth of 7.1 per cent in 2023-24 over 1.9 per cent in 2022-23 for mining sector," the government stated in a news statement.
Over the course of the fiscal year 2023–2024, GVA increased by 7.2%, as opposed to 6.7% growth in FY23.
RBI estimates for economic growth in India
At the April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Reserve Bank of India maintained its forecast of 7% GDP growth in FY25. The central bank's quarterly target for GDP growth was 7.1%, down from 7.2% before for Q1FY25. The GDP growth goal for Q2FY25 was set at 6.9%, up from 6.8%. The RBI projects 7% GDP growth in Q3 and 6.9% GDP growth in Q4, respectively.
According to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, growth in international commerce is anticipated and the state of the world economy seems stable. The last mile of combating inflation, according to Das, is proving to be challenging even if inflation is gradually approaching objectives globally.
Das went on to warn that India would also be affected by the growing debt situations in a few developed economies. The governor also declared at the time that, as of March 29, India's foreign exchange reserves had reached a record high of $645.6 billion.
In April, Eight Key Industries had Growth of 6.2%
According to statistics supplied by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the combined Index of eight key industries (ICI) reported a preliminary gain of 6.2% in April 2024 compared to April 2023. The output of important sectors such as electricity, coal, natural gas, steel, refinery products, crude oil, and cement has increased, which is shown in this positive trend.
