According to Bajaj Broking Research, benchmark indices witnessed a sharp decline to close the first session of the week down by more than 3% amid weak global cues on fear of a full-blown global trade war and U.S. recession fears. Nifty opened gap down and closed down 742 points or 3.24% at 22,161.60. Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal was the top loser, declining over 6.75%. Nifty Realty, Auto, Bank, Infra, IT, Oil and Gas, and Pharma all fell in the range of 3-5% each. The broader market, represented by mid and smallcap 100 indices also showcased bearish trends with losses of over 3.5% each. Along with the development of US tariff policies, market participants will also keep a close eye on the RBI monetary policy outcome and resumption of Q4FY25 earnings season in the current week.

Nifty Outlook

Index opened gap down amid weak global cues as China responded on Friday with its own retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US products thus rising U.S. recession fears dampening global sentiment. Index posted a gap down open traded in a 400 points range (21,800-22,200) and closed the session sharply lower highlighting sharp decline for the second session in a row. Suggest avoiding aggressive positions and wait for stability to return to the market. Nifty has immediate support at 21,800-21,750 being the confluence of Monday’s low and 24 months EMA. Index holding above the support levels can lead to a pullback towards 22,500 & 22,800 levels in the coming sessions from the current oversold territory. While a breach below 21,750 will signal extension of the decline towards 21,500-21,300 levels.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty opened a gap down amid weak global cues amid rising U.S. recession fears dampening global sentiment. The index in the process closed below the 20- and 50-days EMA. Index immediate bias remains down and only a formation of higher high and higher low in the daily chart will signal a pause in the current corrective trend. Bank Nifty has immediate resistance at 51,000 levels while key support to watch out on the lower side is 49,000-48,700. Along with the development of the US tariff policies, market participants will also keep a close eye on the RBI monetary policy outcome and resumption of Q4FY25 earnings season in the current week.