Bajaj Broking Market Closing Commentary
Benchmark equity indices gave up early gains and ended Monday’s session in the red, as investors engaged in profit-booking following three consecutive sessions of upward movement. The Nifty closed at 22,460.30, down by 92 points or 0.41%. The decline was driven by concerns over a sharp drop in US stock futures, renewed fears of trade tensions, and weak cues from Asian markets. This week, several key economic indicators, including US and India CPI data and India’s IIP data, will be closely monitored. The broader market underperformed the Nifty, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices losing approximately 1.53% and 1.97%, respectively. Apart from the FMCG sector, all other sectoral indices ended in the red, with Realty, PSU Bank, Energy, and Auto sectors experiencing declines ranging from 2% to 1%.
Nifty Outlook
Index continues to trade with high volatility as it snapped its three sessions up move and closed lower by 0.41%. On the daily chart it has formed a shooting star like candle signaling profit booking at the 20 days EMA after 700 points up move in the last 4-5 sessions. Nifty has immediate support at 22,200 levels being the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the recent pull back (21964-22676), holding above the same will be crucial for extension of the pullback in the coming sessions towards 22,800-23,000 levels.
Bank nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty extended decline for the 2nd session in a row as it formed a bear candle with a long upper shadow highlighting continuation of the corrective decline. Index in the last 4 weeks has been forming lower high and lower low in the weekly chart. It needs to reverse the pattern to signal a reversal of trend. The index is currently placed near the lower band of the consolidation range 47,800-49,000 holding above the lower band of the range 48,000-47,800 will be crucial for pullback towards 49,000.
Sundar Kewat, Technical and Derivatives Analyst, Ashika Institutional Equity
The Nifty50 started the session on a positive note, opening at 22,521 and inching higher to an intraday high of 22,676. However, the index failed to hold onto its gains, witnessing a sharp sell-off in the second half of the session. The downturn dragged Nifty to an intraday low of 22,471, reflecting selling pressure across key sectors.
The decline was primarily led by Oil & Gas, Realty, PSU Banks, and Energy stocks, which weighed heavily on market sentiment. Market breadth remained weak, with the Nifty 500 showing a stark divergence—only 74 stocks advanced, while 426 declined as of 14:30.
On the stock-specific front, Infosys, HUL, Power Grid, ITC, and Nestle India provided some support to the index. However, the drag was more pronounced, with L&T, Reliance, Trent, and ONGC leading the downside. Notably, Nifty breached the critical support level of 22,500, which it had been holding in recent sessions, signaling potential weakness ahead.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates
The domestic benchmark index, Nifty, opened on a negative note, witnessed heavy volatility, and settled the day lower at 22,460. The volatility index, India VIX, surged by 3.82% to 13.99, indicating a rise in market volatility. Moreover, the broader market underperformed Nifty, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices losing around 1.53% and 1.97%, respectively.
Technically, on the daily chart, Nifty formed a shooting star candlestick pattern near the bearish gap hurdle of 22,668-22,720. This suggests 22,720 will act as an immediate hurdle for Nifty, followed by the previous breakdown point of 22,800. On the downside, the 9-Day Simple Moving Average (9-DSMA) is placed near 22,370, serving as immediate support. Until the index sustains above the 22,800 hurdle, traders are advised to buy near support and book profits around the resistance zones mentioned above.
The Bank Nifty opened with a gap down, witnessed volatility on both sides, and settled the day on a negative note at 48,217. Technically, Bank Nifty formed a small red candle with a long upper shadow indicating selling pressure on higher levels. On the upside, the index is facing resistance near 48,660 levels. A sustained breakout above 48, might propel the index to 49,000, while sustaining below 47,840 could trigger a fresh weakness. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities.
