India’s markets are poised for a positive trajectory in the upcoming week, supported by key economic data releases and a stable global environment. The Wholesale Prices YoY data on March 17 will provide insights into the inflationary pressures in the supply chain, which could influence the RBI's future policy stance. Additionally, the Export, Import, and Trade Balance figures on March 18 will be crucial in assessing the health of India's external sector.
On the global front, China's Industrial Production YTD YoY, Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY, and Retail Sales YTD YoY on March 17 will offer insights into the strength of the world's second-largest economy. The U.S. Retail Sales Advance MoM and Empire Manufacturing data on the same day will provide a snapshot of consumer spending and manufacturing strength. Furthermore, the FOMC Rate Decision on March 19 will be closely watched for any shifts in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.
The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data on March 20, coupled with the Leading Index, will give further clues on the health of the American economy. Meanwhile, India's Foreign Exchange Reserves on March 21 will highlight the country's external stability. Investors will closely monitor these data releases and global events to validate the ongoing growth revival narrative.
Bajaj Broking Market Closing Commentary
Nifty broke its two-session decline, supported by strong global cues. Investors are closely watching the upcoming FED and BOJ meetings this week, with expectations that both will likely maintain their current policies due to inflation concerns linked to tariff uncertainties. Nifty gained 111.55 points, or 0.50%, closing at 22,508.75. The BSE Midcap index rose by 0.7%, while the Small Cap index remained flat. On the sectoral front, auto, banking, metal, power, and pharma sectors saw gains of 0.5-1.5%, while realty and media sectors dropped by 0.5% each.
Nifty Outlook
The index formed a bullish piercing line candlestick pattern, indicating buying interest at lower levels near the 50% retracement of the previous upward move. It has taken 5 sessions to retrace just 50% of the prior 4-session rally (21965-22676), a shallow retracement signals strength. A move above Monday's high (22,577) could trigger an upside towards 22,700 and 23,000 in the coming sessions. Immediate support is seen at 22,200-22,300 sustaining above this level will maintain the current pullback trend.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty extended pullback for the third session in a row as it formed a bull candle with a higher high and higher low signaling consolidation with positive bias. Immediate resistance is placed at 48,600 levels being the confluence of the last week high and 20 days EMA, a move above the same will signal a reverse of the corrective trend and open upside towards 49,200 levels in the coming weeks. While failure to move above 48,600 will keep the bias down and a breach below the lower band of the last 9 weeks consolidation range (47,700-50500) will signal acceleration of decline towards 47,000 levels in coming weeks.
Sundar Kewat, Technical and Derivatives Analyst, Ashika Institutional Equity
The Nifty 50 opened on a flat note at 22,353 but quickly gained momentum, delivering a robust upmove. Notably, the index's opening level coincided with the day’s low, signaling strong buying interest right from the start. Nifty surged to an intraday high of 22,577, driven by strength in Pharma, Financial Services, Banks, and Metals. However, minor weakness was observed in the IT sector. As the session progressed, profit booking led to a 100-point decline from the day’s high, reflecting market participants' cautious stance. On the global front, sentiment received a boost as China unveiled a strategic action plan on Sunday to stimulate domestic demand. Additionally, better-than-expected industrial production and accelerating retail sales growth in China further supported optimism. However, uncertainty looms as investors remain watchful ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this week. Overall, Nifty experienced a volatile trading session, showcasing both bullish enthusiasm and profit-taking at higher levels.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates
Nifty started the day on a negative note but witnessed buying interest, ultimately closing on a positive note at 22,509. The volatility index, India VIX, increased by 1.01% to 13.42, indicating a rise in market volatility.
Technically, on the daily chart, Nifty formed a piercing line candlestick pattern, suggesting strength. However, it faces resistance near the bearish gap of 22,668–22,720. Immediate support for Nifty is placed near 22,300. As long as the index holds above 22,300 level, a pullback towards 22,600–22,700 could be possible.
Bank Nifty opened on a positive note, maintained buying interest, and closed higher at 48,354. Technically, the index formed a green candle on the daily scale, indicating strength. As long as Bank Nifty remains above 47,840, upward momentum is likely to continue. On the upside, the 34-Day Exponential Moving Average (34-DEMA) near 48,890 will act as a key resistance level.
