What will it take to jolt the market? On Tuesday, the stock market avoided the upheaval of the Lok Sabha election, reaching a landmark milestone of producing $1 trillion in six months. The total market capitalization of all BSE-listed companies has grown to $5 trillion, up more than $633 billion since January of this year.
Dalal Street accelerated from $4 trillion on November 29, 2023 to $5 trillion on May 21, 2024. Despite this, foreign institutional investors dumped more than Rs 20,000 crore of Indian stocks in May alone, prompting concerns.
"Except for the Covid spike, volatility has been pretty modest over the last 12 years.""Will it stay the same or skyrocket?" Nithin Kamath, co-founder of Zerodha, wrote on X as India prepares for a critical verdict on June 4.
One user attributed the peace to SIPs. "Robust monthly sips have hooded the markets, MF withdrawals can only create a trigger," she said. Another person used caution. "Volatility is a natural feature of financial markets, impacted by a variety of factors ranging from economic data to geopolitical developments. While the recent period of quiet has been welcomed, it is wise to be attentive for changes and adjust investing strategies."
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have recently played down market concerns regarding elections. According to ICICIdirect, the Nifty has historically corrected 6% throughout the polling process in the previous four elections, while reaching record highs three times around election outcomes.
Bernstein, an international research firm, anticipates a short-term spike leading up to the elections or the week after June 4 that could push the Nifty above 23,000, with the advance led by "infrastructure, manufacturing, and a bit of financials."
Nomura India indicated that its base case assumes that opinion polls are accurate, meaning that the BJP retains power and achieves a simple majority on its own. The conclusion, it stated, will most likely alleviate investor concerns, ensure policy continuity, and promote macroeconomic stability.
According to Equichain Wealth Advisors, the market would be influenced by news and emotion around general election results, exit polls, and the likelihood of a BJP/NDA victory margin in the next two weeks.
