The data for January from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shows that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation was 5.1%. Retail inflation followed November's 5.55 percent reading to a four-month high of 5.69 percent in December 2023. Retail inflation in rural areas was 6.65% in January of last year, compared to 4.79 percent in urban areas. In January, the rural inflation rate was 5.34 percent, down from 5.93 percent in December. January's urban inflation rate decreased to 4.92 percent from 5.46 percent.

January 2024 had an 8.3% inflation rate in the food and beverage sector, down from 8.7% the month before - the highest inflation rate of any category at the time. Food prices, which are still uncertain, would have an impact on the inflation outlook, according to Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das at the first monetary policy committee review of 2024.

The governor stated, "High frequency food price indicators indicate a rise in the cost of important vegetables, which could soon lead to higher CPI inflation. The progress of the continuing rabi sowing of significant crops like wheat, spices, and pulses needs to be closely monitored. The increasing cost of sugar globally is one concerning element.

The RBI kept its 5.4 percent inflation prediction for 2023–2024. The prediction was revised down from 5.2% to 5% for the fourth quarter of this year. The inflation estimate for FY25 has remained at 4.5%, with Q1 estimates of 5%, Q2 estimates of 4%, Q3 estimates of 4.6 percent, and Q4 estimates of 4.7%.

IIP for December 2023

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth for December 2023, released by the MoSPI, was 3.8 per cent, compared to 2.4 per cent recorded in November. November witnessed the lowest IIP growth since March 2023, when it was 1.7 percent.