The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has published an estimate estimating GDP growth for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023-24. According to their research, GDP growth is estimated to be 6.8% on an unchanged basis, but it might reach 7% due to predicted lower revisions in Q3 FY23 forecasts.
According to a research by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at SBI, the global economic environment shows a mixed picture, with numerous key factors influencing the trajectory.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global growth prediction to 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, reflecting a more positive picture.
However, obstacles continue, with nations such as the United Kingdom and Japan entering recession, as well as concerns about Germany's economy. Furthermore, China's significant downturn, fueled by deflationary worries and falling industrial earnings, complicates the global picture.
Consumer confidence has grown, bolstered by favorable attitudes about the economy and employment prospects. Various business surveys also show considerable business confidence.
The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index, which includes 41 leading indicators from several sectors, indicates a minor deceleration in economic activity in Q3 FY24. Based on this information, the SBI Economic Research Department predicts GDP growth in the range of 6.7-6.9 percent, with a Gross Value Added (GVA) rise of 6.6%.
Corporate India's performance is strong, fueled by rising spending patterns in both urban and rural areas. Corporate statistics for the third quarter of FY24 show considerable rise in EBIDTA and PAT (Profit After Tax), as well as a notable improvement in margins. Corporate GVA, as measured by EBIDTA plus personnel expenditures, increased significantly over the prior year.
However, the agricultural sector faces certain problems, with expected output of main Kharif crops declining in 2023-24 compared to FY23. While the Rabi crop sowing season reveals a little increase in overall acreage, there are worries about the decrease in cereal planted area.
Despite these limitations, inland fish output has increased rapidly, reaching 131.13 lakh tons in 2022–23. The fisheries industry's contribution to national and agricultural GVA suggests that it might help the Agri & Allied sector develop in FY24.
