Bajaj Broking Market Closing Commentary
After a negative start, benchmark indices witnessed a steady recovery and managed to close marginally higher by 0.17% at 22,497.90. The broader market showed mixed trends, with midcaps holding steady while small caps extended their losses, slipping by 0.6%, although they recovered from the day’s lows. Key economic indicators, including US and India CPI data, along with India’s IIP data, are scheduled for release after the market closes tomorrow. The Nifty Bank index led the sectoral decline, falling by 0.72%, followed by the Nifty IT index, which slipped 0.5%, and Nifty Auto was down by 0.2%. The Nifty Realty index stood out, rallying nearly 4%. IndusInd Bank shares made headlines following a sharp 27% drop. This decline came after the bank disclosed discrepancies in its derivative portfolio.
Nifty Outlook
Nifty post a gap down opening witnessed a smart recovery of almost 200 points from the day’s low (22,315) to close marginally higher on Tuesday. It has formed a bull candle signaling buying demand at lower levels around the 50% retracement of the previous up move (21965-22676). Going ahead a follow through strength will signal up move towards 22,700 & 23,000 levels in the coming weeks. With immediate support at 22,300-22,200 levels. Major short-term support lies between 22,000-21,700, being the confluence of the 100-week EMA and major trendline support joining last 2-year lows.
Bank nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty extended its decline for the third session in a row, forming a doji candle with shadows in either direction signaling continuation of the corrective decline. The index has been forming lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart for the past four weeks. To reverse the trend, it needs to break this pattern. Failure to do so will maintain a downward bias. The index is currently near the lower end of the 47,700-49,000-consolidation range. A close below 47,800-47,700 will lead to an acceleration of decline towards 47,000 levels in coming weeks.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates
The Indian equity markets opened with a gap down as U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, primarily due to escalating recession fears and ongoing trade tensions. The administration's aggressive tariff policies, particularly the trade war with Canada, have heightened economic uncertainty. Following this, Nifty opened with a gap down and witnessed volatility in the first half. However, the index recovered thereafter and finally settled the day on a flat to positive note at 22,498.
Technically, on the daily chart, Nifty formed a big bullish candle, indicating strength. However, it is still facing resistance near the bearish gap of 22,668-22,720. This suggests that 22,720 will act as an immediate hurdle for Nifty, followed by the previous breakdown point of 22,800. On the downside, 22,300 will serve as a key support level in the short term. Until the index sustains below the 22,800 level, traders are advised to buy near support and book profits around the resistance zone mentioned above.
Bank Nifty opened with a gap down, remained weak throughout the day, and settled on a negative note at 47,854. Technically, it formed a small red candle on the daily scale and closed just above multiple support levels at 47,840. If the index manages to hold 47,840, a relief rally could be possible in Bank Nifty. However, a sustained break below 47,840 could lead to further weakness. Traders should monitor these levels for potential trading opportunities."
Sundar Kewat, Technical and Derivatives Analyst, Ashika Institutional Equity
Tracking weak global cues, Nifty opened lower at 22,345, slipping further to an intraday low of 22,314. However, the index staged a strong rebound from the lows, surging to an intraday high of 22,516 . The initial sell-off was led by weakness in IT, banking, and auto stocks, while the key drivers of the recovery were ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Trent, Sun Pharma, and Reliance. On the flip side, major laggards included IndusInd Bank, Infosys, M&M, TCS, and Axis Bank. The gap-down opening was primarily influenced by global market sentiment after Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 U.S. GDP forecast from 2.4% to 1.7%, citing a weaker economic outlook. This triggered a broad-based sell-off in global and Asian markets.
Among individual stocks, IndusInd Bank remained in focus as it plunged 26% to a 52-week low of ₹648 following the discovery of accounting discrepancies in its derivatives portfolio. The bank reported inconsistencies amounting to ₹15.3 billion, or 2.35% of its net worth, raising concerns over potential losses in Q4FY25.
Despite the shaky start, Nifty demonstrated resilience, erasing losses and trending higher throughout the session. The index now hovers around the crucial resistance level of 22,500, which will be closely watched in the coming sessions.
