Nomura believes that negotiations between the United States and India are progressing steadily and that a trade agreement could be finalised in the near future. According to the brokerage, both countries appear close to aligning on tariff adjustments, which are expected to settle around the 20% range. While discussions have advanced meaningfully, the deal has not yet been formally concluded, but Nomura expects a breakthrough soon.

Key Highlights

• Nomura expects a near-term US–India trade deal with revised tariffs likely settling close to 20%.
• India’s resilient economy and easing inflation strengthen its position in ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

The firm also assessed India’s current macroeconomic environment, noting that the economy is benefiting from easing inflation, supportive monetary policies whose effects are gradually filtering through, and ongoing structural reforms. Measures such as improvements in GST administration, efforts to simplify labour regulations, and broader policy continuity have strengthened India’s medium-term growth potential.

Despite India recently posting a strong GDP reading, Nomura highlighted that some underlying indicators still show signs of moderation. Urban income trends, corporate revenue growth and private-sector capital expenditure appear softer compared to headline GDP numbers. This contrast has raised questions about the durability of the recent growth momentum.

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On the monetary policy front, Nomura continues to expect that the Reserve Bank of India may implement a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. However, the likelihood of this move has slightly reduced after the stronger-than-anticipated GDP figures, which may encourage policymakers to adopt a more cautious approach.

Overall, Nomura’s outlook suggests that India’s resilient economic backdrop provides sufficient confidence for the country to negotiate firmly with the U.S., and that a trade deal — along with revised tariffs — is likely to materialise soon.